India's New Terror Age

Victoria Terminal in Mumbai after a blast last night AFP/Getty

A coordinated series of terrorist attacks in Mumbai today signals a new age of extremism and sectarian violence that will likely increase over time. Since 2001 there have been 24 major terrorist strikes in India resulting in at least 966 deaths. The last five months have been the most harrowing with 302 dead from ten different attacks. As a hostage standoff continues in Colaba that number could rise even higher before the day is out.

What is most troubling about the recent assault on southern Mumbai is the sudden change in tactics. In the last several years most terrorist attacks have come in the form of coordinated small explosive charges, mostly left in nylon bags in commercial districts or IEDs made out of tiffin containers placed on the backs of bicycles in crowded shopping areas. What happened today doesn't fit the pattern of previous events. This wasn't a terrorist attack, this was a coordinated military assault on southern Mumbai executed with precision and calculated to inflict economic, civic, human and symbolic causalities.

Insurgents armed with automatic weapons ran lose on the streets, raided upscale hotels, took hostages and may have specifically targeted foreigners. They set fires in buildings and hijacked police vehicles. Unlike in previous events they weren't afraid to show their faces. These isn't hit and run tactics. This is urban warfare.

Police outside the Taj Hotel in Collaba, Mumbai Prashanth Vishwanathan, NYT

While there is no clear indication of who is behind the most recent string of attacks they must have had significant training and solid financial backing to carry them out. Armed with AK-47's, several boats, satellite phones, grenades and high explosives the group was able to take lower Mumbai completely by surprise and outwit anti-terrorism squads that have been on high alert for months. This level of coordination shows that terrorists here are most likely well networked with other insurgent groups and that they probably share materiel and tactical knowledge. They also have the manpower to embark on large scale operations without putting their entire organization at risk.

While the previous bomb blasts around India could have been carried out by a few dozen dedicated assailants, this attack shows that there must be at least several hundred people planning, training and carrying out logistical missions.

One possible--and even likely--explanation is that whomever is behind this is has been sharing experience and material with any one of the other dozen armed separatist movements across India. The attack today resembles the organizational resilience of other veteran separatist movements in India like the Naxalites, Lakshar e Toiba or even the Sri Lankan LTTE.

This sort of knowledge sharing is not unprecedented. In the past, the LTTE and Naxalites have shared tactical information with groups as far away as the FARC, and while there are vast ideological differences between these groups they are all involved in similar tactical operations and urban warfare. Rediff.com reports that the attackers were in contact with people in Karachi, Pakistan via satelite phone during the operaiton and that the e-mail that claimed responsibility for the attacks had been sent from a source in Russia.

While instances of direct links between terrorist outfits are often difficult to establish concretely, in 2001, three members of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) were arrested in Columbia after sharing bomb making and tactical information with the Farc. These two totally different organizations saw it to be mutually beneficial to share resources, even though there was no ideological connection.

It will be interesting to know what sorts of explosives were used in the attacks last night. Some reports have indicated that they used the explosive RDX, which has both military and industrial applications. A little over a year ago Naxalites stole several tons of explosives from an Essar Steel mine in Chhattisgarh that have been used repeatedly in operations across the country. (At the left is a photo of captured explosives recovered from an unexploded IED that I took while visiting police outposts on the front line of that conflict. Other photos from that story can be found at this link). The haul captured by the Naxals would have been far too much for them to use in their operations against the police and paramilitary forces that the combat in the jungles of central India. There is likely a market for their excess explosives. And what better customer is there than another insurgent group that is trying to destabilize the government?

There is every indication that there will be more attacks to come and that even police successes in capturing terrorists have little impact. When Delhi police raided the house of several suspected terrorists belonging to an outfit called "The Indian Muhajaddin", they found a laptop had illustrated the organization's hierarchical structure. The police conducted dozens of raids across the country and for a while everyone here breathed a little easier.

But the structure of the organization was far from destabilized. Within three months they have been able to mount the most destructive attack in years. The sad fact is that terrorists are gaining ground in India and whomever is behind planning their operations is safe and celebrating the success of their operations.

If anything, this is only the beginning of a new age of terror in India.